Course Duration: Five Training Days
Course Language: Arabic or English
Include:
Scientific material with TAB
Workshops
Reception and farewell at the airport
Daily lunch
Coffee Break
Introduction
Demand management and Forecasting is one most important aspect of any organization where demand for its services or products are determined. Planning for demand is also required internally so that there is a product available on time without an excess of inventory.
Demand planners are more challenged with increased uncertainties of market demand. To achieve accurate demand planning and forecasting, demand planners are required to combine the forecasting science with effective judgment on both internal and external factors. This is not an easy task.
The management of demand is a function of how an organization controls its capacity whether it is in terms of its resources, inventory, or human resource. Demand Management is essential in order that the organization is cost-effective, cost-focused, and to be lean in its operation.
Demand Management and Forecasting training Course covers the fundamentals of demand management and planning, including roles/responsibilities and accountabilities, definitions, process flows, levels, timing and horizons, technologies, and mechanics.
Objectives
At the end of the Demand Management and Forecasting training course , you'll be able to:
Develop a forecast and manage demand
Manage forecast performance
Develop and refine methods and processes to link forecasting to the growth of revenue
Master the skill to “sell” demand planning to your organization through higher inventory turns and higher customer service
Leverage on the value of internal and external collaboration that leads to more accurate forecasts
Enhance your knowledge of statistical concepts that are fully applicable to all forecasting software packages and systems
Develop their understanding of good practice demand planning and inventory management
Learn and practice skills which can be used to evaluate effectiveness of their own organisation’s approaches to these crucial areas
Enhance knowledge which will help explain the value-adding role of the function to key stakeholders
Develop an Action Plan towards improved demand planning and inventory management
Be better able to share good practice with others
Track forecast error
Utilize the various tools available for ensuring accurate forecasting
Understand and use customer relationship management (CRM) tools and strategies
Who Should Attend?
Demand Management and Forecasting Training course, is ideal for :
Those involved in planning the use, movement or purchase of materials, work in progress or finished goods
Inventory managers, inventory planners, expeditors
Warehousing and distribution personnel who respond to demand, inventory and replenishment decisions made by others
Key staff from other functions seeking to gain and appreciation of the role and processes of the demand planning and inventory management functions
Course Outline
unite1:
Keys to successful forecasting process and function
Problems and Needs
Goals and Objectives
Coordination and Leadership
Process Management
Forecast Model Development
Communication with Participants and Users
Four Forecasting Process Approaches
Independent
Concentrated
Consensus
One Number
Myths About Forecasting
Silo Forecasting Impact on Organization
Data patterns and demand variability
The Bullwhip Effect
Demand Variability and the Methods to Minimize It
Recognition of Data Patterns
What kind of problems to look for in the data and how to treat them
unite2:
Inputs and outputs of demand plan
Profit Potential
Risk Management Input
Operations Planning
Forecasting models: Qualitative / Quantitative
How much data to use for different statistical models
Subjective assessment models overview
unite3:
Inherent assumptions
When time series work and when they don’t
Time series elements: Level, Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality, Noise
Cause and effect models
Regression models
When to use regression models
Steps in development
Key assumptions
unite4:
Minimizing forecasting error
Forecast error metrics
Uses of forecast error measures
Sources of error
Error analysis, communication and remediation
Exception driven forecasting process
Relationship between MAPE / Bias, Customer Service and Inventory KPIs
New product forecasting
New product success and error rates
New product success and failure factors
Issues to consider when developing new product forecasts
Qualitative and Quantitative methods used in new product forecasting
unite5:
Promotions forecast
Promotions forecast error rates
Manage the process for unplanned and abnormal demand
Factors, issues, and considerations in developing romotions forecasts
Cannibalization impact of promotions on base / open stock SKUs
Worst forecast practices summary and discussion
Worst practices in the mechanics of forecasting
Worst practices in forecasting process
Best forecasting practices summary
Forecasting process
Data collection and analysis
Methods and models
Software and systems
Communications & People
